Ni iki gitera ifaranga guta agaciro?

Urakaza neza kuri Menya,

Uzumva Banki nkuru y’igihugu (BNR) ivuga ko ifaranga ryagabanutse ku rugero runaka, igihe cyose uyu mubare uba uri mu ijanisha (urug. 4%). Ese Kuri wowe wumva gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga ari iki?

Gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga cyangwa se “Inflation” ni rimwe mu magambo akunze gukoreshwa mu bukungu, ariko abantu bamwe ntibumva neza icyo aricyo, cyane ko ibyiza cyangwa ibibi bikubiyemo.

Hariho imyumvire n’ibitekerezo bitandukanye kuri inflation, ariko mu bukungu, itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga ni igabanuka ry’ubushobozi bw’ifaranga ritewe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro mu gihe runaka.

Muri make, itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga ryerekana uko ubukungu bwifashe, n’uburyo ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa na serivisi bizamuka.

Itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga risobanurwa n’izamuka ry’ibiciro no kugabanuka kw’ubushobozi bw’ifaranga, ibi bishobora gupimwa n’igipimo cy’ihindagurika ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa – “Consumer Price Index (CPI)”.

Mu yandi magambo ni “amafaranga menshi agura ibicuruzwa bicye“. Byumvikana ko ifaranga ritakaza imbaraga zo kugura.

Iyo hari itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga mu bukungu, imbaraga z’ifaranga runaka, tuvuge ko ari amafaranga y’u Rwanda, agabanuka mu gaciro uko igihe kigenda.

Urugero, amafaranga y’u Rwanda (FRW) 500 ashobora kugura amakaramu atanu mu gihe cy’ubu, ariko nyuma y’igihe runaka (wenda nyuma y’umwaka uhereye icyo gihe) ushobora gusanga ya mafaranga (FRW) 500 ashobora kugura amakaramu 2 gusa.

Ikibazo ni uburyo inflation isobanurwa, rimwe na rimwe bitumvikana kimwe ku bantu bose; ariko dore uburyo inflation igomba gusobanurwa neza.

Gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga ntago bishobora kubaho igihe ari igiciro cy’igicuruzwa kimwe cyazamutse kubera ko kitasobanura isoko ryose, bigomba kuba ku bicuruzwa bitandukanye na serivisi zitandukanye runaka.

Ibi bivuze ko impinduka mu biciro bwite by’igiciruzwa, ntibishobora kwerekana ko hariho itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga bitewe n’uko imbaraga z’ibyo bicuruzwa zidahagije mu kugaragaza imihindagurikire y’ibicuruzwa.

Hari aho ibintu bishobora kubaho aho ihinduka ryigiciro kimwe ritera ibindi biciro kuzamuka.

Urugero ni nk’uko igiciro cy’ibikomoka kuri peteroli mu Rwanda cyazamuka. Iki giciro ubwacyo ntabwo cyakerekana ku itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga kugeza igihe iri zamuka riteye n’ibiciro rusange by’ibindi bicuruzwa kuzamuka.

Byongeye kandi, urwego runaka rw’izamuka ry’ibiciro rugomba kuba rumaze igihe kugira ngo tuvuge ko itakazagaciro k’ifaranga ryabayeho.

Ikindi kandi gishobora kuburira ku byerekeye itakazagaciro faranga ni urugero rusange rw’ibiciro rugomba ndetse n’imyitwarire runaka yo kuzamuka kurambye kandi guhoraho kw’ibiciro mu gihe gitandukanye.

Bisobanuye ko iyo ibiciro bizamuka aho kugabanuka, aha biba bitanga imburira y’itakazagaciro k’ifaranga.

Ingaruka zo gutakaza agaciro kw’ifaranga

Bishobora kubaho ko ifaranga ritakaza agaciro ku buryo budasanzwe aribyo bizwi nka hyperinflation , aho ifaranga riba ritagifite ubushobozi bwo kugura ibicuruzwa, ibi bituma ibicuruzwa bihenda ku buryo bukabije.

Aha igihugu ubwacyo nacyo ntikiba kigifite ubushobozi bwo kugenzura ifaranga ryabo kuko aha ibiciro biba bishobora kwiyongera ku kigero kirenze 50% ku munsi.

Ibihugu nka Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Sudan ndetse na Libani biri mu bihugu byagaragaje itakazagaciro rihambaye mu kwezi kwa mutarama 2022.

Ikindi kandi itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga rituma habaho ubusumbane mu mibereho (income and wealth inequality) n’ubukene bitewe cyane cyane no kwinjiza (income).

Kubera ko mu bihe by’itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga ibiciro bizamuka, bamwe batakaza amafaranga abandi bakayabona.

Umusozo

Burya itakazagaciro rigereranyije ni hari igihe riba ryiza kuko iyo riri munsi ya 3% rigira iterambere ku iterambere ry’igihugu. Icyakora banki y’u Rwanda ihangana ni uko “inflation” itakagiye munsi 2%, no hejuru ya 8%, aricyo kitwa “walking inflation”.

Twabonye ko itakazagaciro ari izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa rikaba kandi ripima ubushobozi bw’agaciro k’ifaranga.

Kandi nanone itakazagaciro ry’ifaranga rikunze guteza isumbana ry’ibiciro by’abaturage cyane cyane ku baturage bari mu byiciro byo hasi nibo bahita bajya mu bukene cyane.